Crazy Quilt Future

Sitting in the United States in 2008 its compelling to imagine an automotive future much like the automotive present only with a different fuel. ( Well actually there are those who think the present fuel is just fine if we could only pump more of it but we will leave them at the curb for the moment.)The future is a world full of personal cars powered by hydrogen or switchgrass ethanol or hemp seed diesel or windmill electricity available at the home outlet. All of these are worthy successors to fossil fuel but no single one is likely to take the mantle of king of fuels. In fact I think in the long run a major overhaul in our concept of transportation and the design of our living spaces is going to sneak up and render the personal car rather quaint.

In the short run we face a sort of patchwork quilt of solutions that move us toward a sustainable future. After all, if the perfect car went on sale tomorrow; you know the one with a negative carbon footprint that was powered by the sun; just changing over the automotive fleet would take years. What is more likely to happen is a little bit of this and a little bit of that. A true plug-in hybrid that was affordable would be a huge step but right now its a bit of an oxymoron. Also with the current electrical generation realities it would really be running on coal. Hydrogen currently implies much the same scenario. Thanks to big agriculture biofuels seem likely to displace food crops and require lots of oil driven fertilizers and intensive motorized farming. That's not a winning formula.

The stark facts indicate the car as we know it is likely to be the transport of choice for some time to come. Current engine technology is extremely clean. Fuel economy can be improved dramatically by downsizing, down powering, saving weight and using diesel. Simple known technology. The problem for the most part is we are addicted to driving alone and the current design of most habitable regions requires the use of an automobile to perform the functions necessary to sustain life. I'm talking about going to the grocery store, any store actually, the bank, the doctor, the daycare center. Did I mention going to work? Unless you live in New York City you probably aren't going to abandon your car for taxis and public transportation. It's just too inconvenient and time consuming.

If I could implement one technology to reduce car use or eliminate it all together in most urban areas it would be something like this. You call a number. You tell them where you are and where you want to go. If you don't like cell phones you do this on your computer or at a dedicated kiosk. Within five minutes a nice diesel powered van arrives. One that has plenty of space for your groceries. It takes you where you need to go picking up other passengers using dynamic routing that allows it to pick up nearby travelers going to local destinations along the way. No long waits. No long walks to the bus stop. Just a charge of perhaps a dollar a mile and an opportunity to meet the community or listen to your iPod. As you wish.

All of this is easily possible using existing technologies. It's just that we are inside the public transportation prison of the past. This is a simple, affordable, economically feasible and desirable solution. Of course taxi franchises and public transport will resist mightily. It just requires thinking outside of the current parameters. For those interested in an elaboration of this idea that describes a current pilot system in operation visit www.taxibus.org.uk and start talking it up.

At the dawn of the automotive age there were those who built chassis and those who built bodies. A whole car involved at least one of each. This arrangement resulted in hundreds of "automakers" in the United States. Over time, exploiting economies of scale the industry came to be known as the "Big Three". However bigness has its downside too and the majors find it impossible to anticipate where the market is going en masse. Exploiting small niches profitably is also difficult. Factories are shuttered. Layoffs announced. Hands are wrung.

The design process that once required a small army of engineers and support staff can now be done on relatively inexpensive CAD/CAM equipment. If you have development money you can beat the bigs to the small profitable niches and outsource the actual building of the car. Thus we see Tesla Motors funded by Elon Musk who made his nut at PayPal and Fisker Automotive led by Henrik Fisker and his impressive design portfolio from BMW, Aston Martin and others combining with eager venture capitalists to become the new car manufacturers.

If these new conglomerations succeed, we could be witnessing the dawn of a new automotive industry. These cars are aimed at a small but lucrative segment where the price of entry is $100.000 and up. These cars will never sell in numbers that make sense to GM or Ford but there are certainly 5000+ buyers a year for someone who can deliver the green performance car well heeled motorists desire. Fisker and Musk are looking to leverage the technology pioneered on these cars into larger numbers of cheaper, mainstream vehicles.

As automotive suppliers become suppliers of components to an ever more modular and computer-centric auto industry, one can imagine the emergence of completely new manufacturing entities. The Dell Dynamo? How about a GoogleCar?